The decentralized blockchain betting site Polymarket has seen a significant shift in the odds regarding President Joe Biden’s participation in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Following the first debate against former President Donald Trump, traders now estimate a 46% chance that Biden will drop out of the race before November, a sharp increase from the 19% recorded last Thursday.
Concerns over Biden’s ability to secure another term have been growing, particularly due to his age. During the CNN-hosted debate, Biden’s performance did little to ease these worries. At 81 years old, the president appeared to struggle with his sentences, slurred his speech, and even engaged in odd exchanges with Trump about who is the better golfer. In contrast, Trump seemed composed, focusing on his usual talking points about immigration and foreign policy while highlighting Biden’s missteps.
At one point, Trump remarked on Biden’s comments about immigration, saying, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.” This kind of criticism has fueled the growing sentiment among some that Biden may not be fit for another term.
Polling data supports these concerns. A CBS News and YouGov poll conducted after the debate showed that only 28% of registered voters support Biden’s candidacy, with a substantial 72% opposing his run for president. These numbers reflect a significant challenge for Biden as he seeks to maintain his position as the Democratic nominee.
Despite the growing calls for his withdrawal, leading Democratic figures and major donors have rallied behind President Biden. The Wall Street Journal reported that prominent members of the party spent Sunday at Camp David with Biden and his family, presenting a united front and urging him to continue his reelection campaign.
Polymarket, a platform where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency, has seen increased activity around Biden’s potential withdrawal. Last week, traders speculated with a 61% chance that Trump would bring up Bitcoin or crypto during the debate. While the debate covered topics such as abortion rights, foreign policy, healthcare, the environment, and democratic processes, crypto was notably absent.
The absence of cryptocurrency discussion in the debate is notable given its emerging role in the election. Former President Trump has recently endorsed the asset class, accepting crypto donations and advocating for increased Bitcoin production in the U.S. During a Mar-a-Lago event for holders of his Trump-themed NFTs, he emphasised his support for the cryptocurrency industry. This stance is a stark contrast to the Biden administration’s approach.
The Biden-appointed Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler has faced significant criticism from the crypto community for his regulatory approach. Many in the industry view Gensler’s actions as harmful, targeting prominent platforms like Coinbase and Uniswap through litigation rather than fostering a supportive regulatory environment. Edward Wilson, an analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt, “Trump’s acceptance and embrace of crypto are in stark contrast with the overwhelmingly regressive approach to crypto taken by the Biden administration. Many US-based supporters place crypto as a key issue for them and are fed up with the approach of going after good actors in the space.”
Trump’s crypto-friendly stance could play a crucial role in the election, appealing to the growing number of Americans invested in or supportive of the cryptocurrency market. As crypto becomes a more prominent issue, the contrasting approaches of the two candidates could influence voter decisions, particularly among younger, tech-savvy demographics.
The growing speculation about Biden’s potential withdrawal from the race highlights the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. As debates continue and candidates outline their policies, the focus will be on key issues that resonate with voters. The intersection of traditional political concerns with emerging topics like cryptocurrency could shape the narrative and impact the strategies of the candidates.
