The Florida housing market is going through a series of ups and downs, and much of the action seems to come down to one key factor: inventory. Across the state, from Sarasota to Cape Coral, home values have been sliding, but the cause appears to be tied to the amount of available homes for sale. The story is playing out differently depending on location, with some areas seeing value declines and others, like Miami-Dade, managing to hold steady. As the year progresses, these changes could become more pronounced, especially in places where inventory is on the rise.
Several Florida markets experienced noticeable drops in home values during August 2024. Sarasota, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Naples all saw declines ranging from -0.70% to -1.00%, based on seasonally adjusted figures. These figures indicate that the housing market in these regions is cooling, with the likelihood that the downward trend will continue in the coming months. The numbers are based on observations from real estate professionals on the ground, and there’s little sign that these markets will turn around anytime soon.
Interestingly, Miami-Dade County stands out as an exception in the state’s overall trend. While many parts of Florida are grappling with price drops, Miami has continued to show moderate appreciation. In August 2024, home values in Miami-Dade actually grew by 0.30%, making it the only major county in Florida to register positive value growth during the month. The reason for this, as local experts point out, comes down to one thing: low inventory.
With just 14,200 homes on the market in Miami-Dade, compared to over 20,000 before the pandemic, there simply aren’t enough homes available to meet the demand. This scarcity has kept prices afloat, at least for now. But how long can Miami sustain this pattern? That’s a key question, and one that many are watching closely. As long as inventory stays low, Miami-Dade may continue to buck the trend, but the moment supply catches up with demand, the market could change course.
The broader takeaway for Florida’s housing market is that areas with higher levels of available inventory are suffering more significant price declines. Counties with high inventory, such as Sarasota and Punta Gorda, are feeling the brunt of the downturn. Meanwhile, regions with tighter inventory, like Miami-Dade, are holding up better under pressure. It’s an inventory-driven market, and that’s the central narrative in Florida real estate right now.
One county that’s beginning to feel the impact of rising inventory is Broward, located just north of Miami. Broward has seen a dramatic increase in the number of homes for sale, with inventory levels reaching their highest point in at least seven years. This surge in supply is starting to have an effect on home values, with Broward recording a -0.16% drop in value growth in August 2024. While this isn’t as severe as the declines seen in other parts of the state, it could be a signal of more downward movement to come.
Two other counties to watch closely are Osceola and Polk, both located near Orlando. These areas have experienced a striking increase in active listings, with inventory levels now 50% higher than they were before the pandemic. This surge in available homes has created a supply glut, which could drag down prices even further in the months ahead. If inventory levels continue to rise at this rate, both Osceola and Polk counties may face more pronounced declines in home values as the year progresses.
To help navigate this complex market, the Reventure App has been developed, combining data on home appreciation and inventory to provide a score for every market and ZIP code. This score is designed to give investors, real estate agents, and homebuyers insights into whether an area is a buyer’s or seller’s market, and where prices are likely to head in the future.
The score works on a simple system: markets scoring below 50 are considered buyer’s markets, where prices are more likely to drop. Conversely, markets scoring above 50 are considered seller’s markets, where prices have a higher chance of increasing. By using this tool, individuals can make more informed decisions about when and where to buy or sell, as well as identify emerging markets that may perform better in the future.
In a market like Florida, where conditions can vary dramatically from county to county, the Reventure App score provides a valuable resource. For investors, it offers a way to assess potential opportunities in areas that may be overlooked. For homebuyers, it gives a clearer picture of where they might be able to find a deal or where they might want to wait before making a purchase.
At present, the housing market in Florida is very much a game of supply and demand. Areas with rising inventories are experiencing price declines, while those with lower inventories are managing to hold steady or even see slight appreciation. But as inventory levels continue to fluctuate, the market could shift quickly. Counties like Broward, which are seeing rapid increases in the number of homes for sale, could be a bellwether for what’s to come in other parts of the state.
Overall, Florida’s housing market is facing some significant challenges, and the situation is likely to evolve further as the year goes on. Whether Miami-Dade can continue to hold out against the broader trend remains to be seen, but for now, the county’s low inventory has helped it weather the storm. Meanwhile, areas like Sarasota, Punta Gorda, and Cape Coral will need to contend with rising inventories and the accompanying pressure on prices.
For those looking to buy or sell in Florida, staying informed is more important than ever. Understanding the dynamics of inventory and how it impacts home values can make all the difference in navigating this complex market. The Reventure App’s price forecast score is one tool that can help, offering a way to cut through the noise and make more informed decisions.
The Florida housing market is at a critical juncture, and the next few months will likely reveal more about where things are headed. Whether the current trends continue or new factors come into play, one thing is clear: inventory is the name of the game, and those who can track it closely will have the best chance of succeeding in this challenging market.
