Renowned portfolio manager, Michael Gayed, has expressed serious concerns over the future of the housing market, based on the observable decline in lumber prices. According to Gayed, this trend is a significant leading indicator for the construction industry and suggests impending problems for the housing sector.
Gayed stated that an average home comprises approximately 16,000 board feet of lumber, the cost of which has been consistently declining. He emphasized the importance of this trend, noting that while homebuilder stocks remain strong, they are not predictive indicators like lumber prices. Gayed expects a significant slowdown in the housing market, spurred by an array of factors including past Airbnb investors, looming debt ceiling issues, and a supply-demand imbalance.
Despite housing constituting 18-20% of the GDP, Gayed warns that the effects of a potential housing market downturn are often underestimated until they become systemic. He forewarned that decreased housing prices could impact consumer stocks and small-cap stocks, and ultimately curtail consumer spending.
The wealth effect, a concept suggesting that people spend more as the value of their assets rise, is intrinsically tied to housing prices. As such, a decline in housing could lead to a substantial reduction in consumer spending. Moreover, Gayed signaled potential risks for the commercial real estate sector due to the same supply-demand imbalances.
The portfolio manager warned of the dangers of holding highly leveraged properties, which will not all mature at the same time, making refinancing and re-leveraging challenging. With banks increasingly cautious about providing capital due to their own asset liability mismatches, Gayed suggested that the market conditions do not favor optimism.
Despite the gloomy forecast, Gayed advised that there are still opportunities in the market but emphasized the importance of diversification. He recommended investing in assets that could benefit from a volatile environment, such as gold, treasuries, and defensive sector stocks.
Gayed also drew attention to the possibility of a pre-election year correction, citing the 1987 Dow crash as an example. He underlined the importance of timing-based strategies and rules-based funds, stating that these investments could perform well given the right circumstances.
