The discussion around quantum computing and Bitcoin has swung back into view, helped along by new research on hash-based signatures and a clear explanation from Bob Bodily about what is actually at stake. The topic often attracts alarmist claims, yet researchers working in the space continue to emphasise two points: the threat is real, and it is distant.
Bodily’s post captures that balance. He points out that ECDSA and Schnorr signatures, which secure every current Bitcoin address format, can in theory be broken by sufficiently advanced quantum computers through Shor’s algorithm. The crucial detail is exposure. Funds are only at risk once a public key has been revealed, whether through spending, reusing an address or using formats such as Taproot and P2PK where the public key is visible upfront.
The chart shared from River makes the distinction clearer. Addresses classed as long-range are exposed immediately because their public keys are already visible. Others are short-range and become vulnerable only once they are used. Even then, this is a potential attack path that depends on the arrival of far more powerful machines than exist today.
Researchers do not expect that moment any time soon. Bodily stresses that Bitcoin is not on the brink of a quantum break. He estimates a window of at least a decade before there is any real pressure to adopt a post-quantum signature scheme. The reason for raising the topic now is simply the speed at which Bitcoin development deliberately moves. Any upgrade that touches the signature system will require long debate, testing and consensus. Starting early ensures the network has good options on the table when the time eventually comes.
That is where the new research fits in. Work from Nickler and Mikhail Kudinov explores hash-based signature schemes designed with Bitcoin in mind. Because Bitcoin already relies heavily on hashing, these signatures appeal to developers looking for safer, conservative options. Early versions were bulky, but further optimisation has brought them down to around four kilobytes, while still verifying efficiently. They remain larger than current signatures, though the trade-off is being taken seriously within the research community.
For everyday users, none of this calls for drastic action. Bodily suggests avoiding P2PK and Taproot if someone wants extra comfort, and sticking to modern SegWit formats with no address reuse. Many hardware wallets already guide users towards those habits by default. Even these steps are optional for now, aimed mainly at calming those who worry about an event that sits well over the horizon.
The broader message is measured. Quantum computers will eventually force every major digital system to adapt, not just Bitcoin. The community has time, researchers are already working on solutions and the shift will not happen overnight. Bitcoin’s slow-and-careful development process is being treated as a benefit here rather than a flaw.
For now, the conversation is less about danger and more about preparation. Researchers continue to refine post-quantum candidates, and the wider ecosystem is being encouraged to support that work rather than fuel panic. As Bodily puts it, the priority is ensuring the network is ready long before it ever needs to be.
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