US consumers grow more concerned about unemployment
Americans are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of higher unemployment, with expectations reaching their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The survey found that the mean perceived probability of the US unemployment rate being higher in one year rose by 1.6 percentage points in August to 44.4 per cent. It was the highest reading since April 2020, when the labour market was heavily affected by the pandemic.
The August figure was also above the previous peak of 44.1 per cent recorded in April 2025, when uncertainty surrounding tariffs contributed to weaker employment expectations.
Concerns varied by household income. Among respondents with annual household incomes above US$100,000, the perceived probability of higher unemployment reached 50.3 per cent, the second-highest reading recorded for the group.
For households earning between US$50,000 and US$100,000, the figure was 43.5 per cent, while it stood at 38 per cent among those earning less than US$50,000. The New York Fed said the increase in unemployment expectations was broad-based across age, education and income groups.
The figures reflect expectations about the broader US unemployment rate rather than a direct measure of how many people believe they will personally lose their jobs.
In fact, the survey showed that the mean perceived probability of losing one’s own job over the next 12 months fell by 0.4 percentage points to 13.8 per cent, its lowest level since February 2026. At the same time, the perceived probability of finding a job if a respondent lost their current position declined by 0.8 percentage points to 45.4 per cent.
Expectations around voluntary job departures also increased. The mean expected quit rate for the next 12 months rose by 0.9 percentage points to 19.5 per cent, above its 12-month average of 18.4 per cent.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations is a nationally representative internet-based survey of about 1,300 household heads. Participants are part of a rotating panel and provide information on their expectations for employment, earnings, inflation, household finances and other economic conditions. The August survey was conducted between 3 and 31 August 2026.
The latest figures therefore point to greater concern among consumers about the broader unemployment outlook, while some measures relating to individual job security moved in a different direction.
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