Elon Musk sees a future where humanoid robots will surpass the human population by 2040, a bold forecast he shared at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh. The Tesla CEO has long championed advancements in AI and robotics, but his latest claim has stirred debate within the scientific community. Musk suggests that within just over 15 years, we’ll see more humanoid robots than people—a scenario he imagines unfolding in every country, impacting not only the workforce but the very fabric of society.
“I think by 2040, there are more humanoid robots than there are people,” Musk said, suggesting that AI technologies will permeate every aspect of life. As populations around the globe rise, the World Population Clock places the current human count around 8.2 billion. The possibility of outnumbering this with machines prompts questions not just about the practicality of Musk’s vision but its deeper social and ethical implications.
Musk’s comments are rooted in a broader view he’s often shared: that AI and robotics will fundamentally reshape life as we know it, even leading humans to confront a “crisis of meaning.” He reiterated this sentiment recently at the All-In Summit hosted by the All-In Podcast, where he forecast that a world filled with highly capable humanoid robots would transform economies, as the potential for limitless manufacturing, assistance, and labour changes what productivity means. Yet, the “crisis of meaning” comes as the role of human involvement diminishes, nudging society to rethink what purpose means in a world of robot-dominated labour.
“Think of the impact of humanoid robots,” Musk explained, “with no real limit on their numbers and high intelligence levels. This shifts what economies can achieve. Once robots fill roles from manufacturing to household chores, our concept of work itself will transform.”
Not everyone is convinced that Musk’s ambitious timeline is achievable. Renowned cognitive scientist and AI expert Gary Marcus is one voice of caution, doubting that robots could reach such numbers or capabilities in the next two decades. “Elon has a track record of overoptimistic predictions about AI, and this one is no different,” Marcus told Decrypt. He likens the adoption of humanoid robots to car ownership, a process that took decades to achieve widespread penetration. “There are only about 1.5 billion cars on the road; many people can’t afford one or don’t see the need,” Marcus said. He contends that the demand for humanoid robots will face similar hurdles, likely stalling their widespread adoption, especially at Musk’s proposed scale.
Marcus, an established AI researcher and critic of overhyped technological promises, argues that the reality of robot adoption is still held back by various practical challenges. Musk’s promise of making humanoid robots “affordable” for the average person is, according to Marcus, more optimistic than realistic. The notion of a world with robots in every home and workplace, like a common household appliance, is for Marcus still more science fiction than imminent reality. The comparison between owning a car and a humanoid robot may seem straightforward on the surface, but in Marcus’s view, robots bring a different level of complexity in terms of functionality, safety, and cost.
At Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle event, Musk presented the latest version of Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot prototype, which he promised would be commercially available within a few years. Priced initially between $20,000 to $30,000, Musk envisions Optimus as a key player in making humanoid robots accessible. However, Marcus is not persuaded, noting that the complexity of humanoid robots goes well beyond current consumer robotics, even the best-selling ones like Roomba. While Roomba, a simpler robotic vacuum, has sold around 50 million units worldwide, Marcus believes it’s a huge leap to imagine the demand—or the technology—required to achieve the same with humanoid robots.
“Roomba sells for a few hundred dollars and has reached significant sales figures because it’s affordable and functional. But we’re talking about imagining 200 times that amount in humanoid robots—when nobody knows how to build a single safe, reliable, generally useful humanoid right now, at any price,” Marcus pointed out. For him, Musk’s vision leans too heavily on optimistic projections without addressing the pressing hurdles in robotic development, from hardware and software compatibility to economic and social impacts.
The perception of robots as household staples by 2040 requires a seamless integration of advanced AI, sophisticated mechanical systems, and affordability—a tall order given the state of technology today. To build a robot capable of doing the variety of tasks that would make it indispensable in a household or workplace, engineers face ongoing challenges. Designing a machine that can autonomously assist with everyday tasks, adapt to varied environments, and interact meaningfully with humans requires much more than refining current AI algorithms. Even with considerable advancements in machine learning, AI still faces limitations in complex decision-making and physical interaction, especially in unpredictable or dynamic settings.
Musk’s perspective suggests that technological progress could overcome these obstacles faster than most anticipate, but Marcus isn’t alone in his reservations. Other experts note that a society with ubiquitous robots poses significant ethical and practical questions. Who would be responsible for robots if they malfunction or behave unpredictably? How would privacy and data security be maintained in a world where robots operate within private homes and businesses? Moreover, how would the economic shifts Musk foresees impact those whose roles are replaced by machines?
Safety remains a key point of concern, especially as robots gain more autonomy. To date, the most successful applications of robots are found in controlled environments like factories or warehouses, where they follow a limited set of tasks in structured spaces. The leap to a domestic or public environment, with endless unpredictable scenarios, introduces unprecedented complexities. Ensuring that robots can operate safely alongside humans—preventing accidents, avoiding ethical pitfalls, and maintaining trust—are challenges yet to be resolved.
The economic aspects of Musk’s vision are just as intricate. If robots can indeed perform tasks across industries, questions arise about the future of employment and the broader impact on economies that rely on human labour. While automation already affects certain sectors, the widespread deployment of humanoid robots could reshape global job markets in ways previously unimagined. This could demand rapid adjustments in policies, such as social support systems for displaced workers and new frameworks for re-skilling people whose jobs are automated.
Musk’s Optimus prototype is an ambitious start, and it has drawn considerable interest, but even its proponents acknowledge that it has limitations. So far, Tesla’s robots are far from replacing human capability, lacking both the dexterity and intuitive understanding needed for complex interactions. While Musk has set ambitious targets, the gap between conceptual breakthroughs and their practical applications remains wide.
Perhaps the biggest question underpinning Musk’s vision is whether societies are prepared for a future where robots take on such a substantial role. From ethical considerations to legal structures and economic impacts, the potential rise of humanoid robots will likely require profound shifts in both policy and public perception. Musk envisions a world where robotics become an extension of humanity’s capabilities, enhancing what societies can achieve; however, experts like Marcus argue that before society accepts robots on that scale, a multitude of unanswered questions must be addressed.
