The world is heading towards a major copper shortage, with analysts projecting a deficit of around 10 million tonnes by 2040, roughly a third of current global demand.
Global consumption is expected to rise from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes in 2040, driven largely by Asia, which is forecast to account for 60 per cent of total demand growth. Electric vehicle adoption, upgraded power grids and renewable energy projects are all pushing demand higher.
Data centres supporting artificial intelligence are also emerging as major copper consumers. By 2040, AI-related copper demand is expected to increase by 127 per cent, reaching 2.5 million tonnes. The rapid growth of cloud computing, AI training operations and digital infrastructure is adding a new layer of pressure on global copper supply chains.
On the supply side, production is projected to peak at about 34 million tonnes in 2030 before gradually falling to around 32 million tonnes by 2040. Mining expansion faces multiple hurdles, including high extraction costs, environmental regulations, and geopolitical risks in key producing regions. Experts warn that without new investments and improvements in recycling, the gap between demand and supply could lead to significant price volatility.
Copper’s role as a critical industrial and strategic metal is increasing. It is essential for electrification, renewable energy systems such as wind and solar, and the battery technologies powering electric vehicles. Governments and corporations are beginning to recognise the need to secure stable copper supply chains, as shortages could slow the global transition to cleaner energy and advanced technologies.
Recycling and efficiency improvements are being cited as key solutions, alongside exploration for new deposits. Some analysts suggest that a shortage could drive innovation in materials science, pushing the adoption of alternative conductors or alloys. Meanwhile, countries with major reserves may gain strategic influence, as copper becomes as politically and economically important as oil has been in previous decades.
The coming two decades could see copper move from a widely available industrial metal to a scarce and highly sought-after resource, influencing energy, transport, technology and manufacturing sectors worldwide.
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