Maria Irene
As the adage goes, those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. For the real estate markets in Australia and the US, this old proverb seems to be sounding an alarm. Subtle signs of distress have been sprouting, with both countries showing similar patterns reminiscent of the uneasy period before the last housing crisis.
Let’s start by zooming in on the Australian landscape. The normally robust suburbs of Melbourne and regional Victoria are currently seeing a distressing uptick in ‘distressed’ property listings. The numbers are telling. In the City of Casey’s southern region, for instance, distressed listings leaped to 4.6% in June from 3.1% a year prior. Cardinia and Wyndham are following a similar narrative, with each registering over a percentage point rise.
These distressed listings are properties characterized by their low equity and tell-tale sale tags such as “must sell” or “distressed”. Most are owned by property holders who bought during the period of low-interest rates and are now feeling the pinch from the double whammy of interest rate hikes and a cost of living increase.
Curiously, the rise in distressed listings isn’t confined to Melbourne’s peripheries. Some regional areas, like Shepparton and Geelong council areas, have also recorded an increase in such listings, contributing to a sense of urgency among real estate agents and causing a shift in sales tactics.
Moving on to the US, the situation takes a chilling turn as it mimics patterns from 2006. Nick Gerli, a Real Estate Analyst, notes that homebuyers in 2023 are bearing similar interest burdens to those in 2006 and are even putting less money down on average. This, combined with a growing dependence on other forms of debt like credit cards and personal loans to fund spending and mortgage costs, could foreshadow an impending crisis.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan program in the US, known for providing risky first-time homebuyer loans with only a 3% down payment, has grown to a larger share of the market than it held in the mid-2000s. Coupled with a steady increase in the FHA Homebuyer Debt-to-Income (DTI) ratio, Gerli sees storm clouds gathering on the horizon.
In the face of these realities, Gerli calls for vigilance and proactive measures to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial meltdown. While the parallels between the mortgage markets of 2006 and 2023 are eerily similar, he acknowledges differences, such as fewer overall mortgages and improved credit scores. However, his concerns stem from a comparable level of mortgage interest debt shouldered by homebuyers in both periods.
Looking at both countries side-by-side, the picture is unsettling. Australia and the US find themselves grappling with increased mortgage stress and potential downturns in their respective real estate markets. Homeowners on both continents are being squeezed by rising interest rates and unsustainable debt levels, while a noticeable surge in distressed listings provides a grim reminder of the financial turbulence that preceded the last housing crisis.
A key lesson here is the need for comprehensive understanding and scrutiny of the housing market trends. While some may dismiss these patterns as cyclical anomalies, it’s crucial to remember the financial chaos that unfolded when these signs were last seen.
The bottom line? Vigilance is needed to avoid déjà vu. As we navigate the current real estate landscape, we must acknowledge these warning signs and learn from our past missteps. After all, the ghost of 2006 still haunts, and both Australia and the US would do well to heed its lessons.
