Let’s stop pretending.
The recent trade deal between India and the United States is being sold as a “positive reset” and a “pragmatic win”. In reality, it exposes a serious failure of trade strategy, followed by a forced surrender dressed up as diplomacy.
This is not negotiation strength.
This is damage control.
First, the uncomfortable truth: we already had a better deal
Before all this drama:
- Indian exports to the US faced 2–3% tariffs
- Indian products were competitive
- Exporters had predictability
After confrontation, escalation, and chest-thumping:
- Tariffs shot up to 25–50%
- Exporters suffered
- Jobs were lost
- MSMEs struggled
Now the government proudly announces:
“Tariffs reduced to 18%”
Let’s be blunt:
18% is NOT a victory. It is still extremely high.
If you start at 2%, fall into a hole at 50%, and then climb back to 18% —
you don’t celebrate. You ask who pushed you into the hole.
The biggest red flag: Zero duty for US products
Here’s where the deal becomes indefensible.
- Indian goods to US: 18% duty
- US goods into India: 0% or near-zero duty
This is not reciprocity.
This is imbalance.
How exactly are Indian manufacturers, farmers, and MSMEs supposed to compete with:
- Heavily subsidised US products
- Cheaper imports
- Stronger US brands with scale advantage?
If this is “strategic partnership”, then India is clearly the junior partner.
A full 360° government U-turn
The government first took a hard stand.
Then tariffs exploded.
Then exporters screamed.
Then markets reacted.
Then jobs were threatened.
Finally — the government turned 360° and accepted a deal worse than what we already had.
And now, instead of accountability, we get:
- Marketing slogans
- Selective data
- Victory headlines
Professionals should see through this.
This is not strategic patience.
This is policy miscalculation corrected under pressure.
Who really pays the price? Ordinary Indians
This deal will not hurt the elite. It will hurt:
- Export-dependent workers
- Small manufacturers
- Local traders
- MSMEs
Yes, some US imports may become cheaper.
But cheaper imports today mean:
- Closed factories tomorrow
- Fewer jobs
- Lower bargaining power for Indian labour
Consumers may save a little.
Producers will lose a lot.
IT industry: Stop overhyping it
Let’s kill another myth.
This deal does nothing meaningful for the IT sector:
- No visa relief
- No digital trade framework
- No data localisation clarity
At best, IT firms get sentiment relief, not structural benefit.
At worst, a stronger rupee cuts margins further.
Calling this an “IT boost” is pure spin.
Crypto & fintech: Absolutely no substance
For crypto and fintech:
- No tax relief
- No regulatory clarity
- No cross-border innovation framework
Any market optimism is emotional, not policy-driven.
The deal gives crypto confidence vibes, not confidence rules.
The question the government refuses to answer
Let professionals ask what matters:
- If 2–3% tariffs were possible earlier, why accept 18% now?
- If US goods get 0% duty, where is equal access?
- If this is a success, why were exporters bleeding for months?
Stability after self-created chaos is not leadership.
It is course correction after failure.
Final word: Don’t clap for a downgrade
This trade deal:
- Avoids further damage — yes
- Restores some stability — yes
- Improves a bad situation — maybe
But it is still worse than what India already had.
Calling it a “win” insults professionals who understand numbers.
Real leadership would admit mistakes, not rebrand them.
India deserves trade policy built on foresight — not firefighting.
