Vice President Kamala Harris has reached a significant milestone, now tied with former President Donald Trump at 49% among bettors predicting the next occupant of the White House on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket. This betting pool, the largest on the site, has over $541 million riding on the outcome, highlighting the intense interest in the upcoming election.
This development follows Harris’s announcement of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which surprised many Polymarket users who had heavily favored Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro for the role. As Polymarket noted the tie on Twitter, both Harris and Walz, along with Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance (R-OH), are campaigning in Michigan, adding to the election’s dynamic landscape.
Harris’s odds on Polymarket have been on the rise since July 21, when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. At that time, Harris’s odds were at 30%, while Trump’s were at 64%. Biden, recovering from COVID-19, saw his odds plummet to 7% amid widespread rumors of his potential withdrawal. Prediction markets like Polymarket are often seen as meaningful sources of probabilities and market sentiment predictors, differing from traditional public opinion polls. However, participants in these markets are self-selecting, and Polymarket, in particular, has a user base that skews heavily towards crypto enthusiasts. The platform utilizes Polygon, a layer-2 scaling solution on the Ethereum blockchain, making it a unique player in the prediction market space.
Polymarket is known for its rapid response to breaking news, such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump. The platform’s reaction to Harris choosing Walz over Shapiro as her running mate illustrates that prediction markets can sometimes miss the mark, showing the unpredictable nature of political campaigns.
The platform recently added prominent statistician Nate Silver as an advisor. Silver, known for his previous work with polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, now publishes his analysis under the name Silver Bulletin, while FiveThirtyEight is owned by ABC and rebranded as 538. Silver’s involvement with Polymarket brings additional credibility and attention to the platform’s predictive capabilities.
In recent weeks, Polymarket has seen explosive growth in traffic and popularity, driven largely by the presidential race and U.S. politics. July was a particularly chaotic month, marked by Trump’s assassination attempt and Biden’s withdrawal from the race. During this period, Polymarket facilitated a record $387 million in trading volume, more than triple the volume of the previous month, according to a Dune dashboard. This surge in activity reflects the high stakes and volatility of the current political climate.
As of early August, Polymarket has already recorded $130 million in trades, indicating continued high engagement and interest from users. The platform’s ability to attract such significant trading volumes underscores its growing influence and the increasing role of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets in gauging public sentiment and political forecasts.
Kamala Harris’s steady climb in the odds on Polymarket, reaching parity with Trump, is a notable development in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. It highlights the dynamic nature of the campaign and the shifting perceptions among bettors. With the election still months away, the political landscape remains fluid, and prediction markets like Polymarket will continue to be a valuable barometer of public sentiment and potential outcomes.
The use of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology in platforms like Polymarket represents a new frontier in prediction markets, offering a decentralized and transparent way to gauge probabilities and market sentiment. As more users engage with these platforms, their predictive accuracy and influence are likely to grow, providing valuable insights into political and other significant events.
As the campaign progresses, the interplay between traditional polling methods and innovative prediction markets will be an interesting dynamic to watch. Harris’s tie with Trump on Polymarket is a snapshot of the current moment, reflecting the uncertainty and excitement surrounding the upcoming election. With significant financial stakes and public interest, the next few months promise to be a compelling period for political observers and bettors alike.
