Maria Irene
By the end of 2022, EV sales globally had skyrocketed to over 10 million, constituting 14% of all new cars sold, a leap from the mere 5% in 2020. This trend is not only persistent but expected to accelerate, with EV sales forecasted to reach 14 million by 2023, capturing a staggering 18% of the total car sales market. China, Europe, and the United States are the vanguards of this growth, while emerging markets such as India, Thailand, and Indonesia are also joining the electric bandwagon.
This unprecedented transition towards EVs is having profound implications on global oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that oil demand from road transport could reach a saturation point by 2025. Furthermore, by 2030, EVs could displace over 5 million barrels of oil per day, significantly curtailing CO2 emissions.
Government policies worldwide are propelling this change, with the European Union and the United States setting new regulations and standards to facilitate the transition towards electric transportation. Such legislative reforms, combined with an increasing global awareness of climate change, are prompting auto giants like Toyota to redefine their strategies and shift gears to electric mobility.
Underlying Toyota’s shift is a series of groundbreaking technological innovations that constitute its ‘Electric Renaissance.’ Central to this is the introduction of advanced next-gen batteries. By 2026, the company plans to introduce two battery variants: a performance model leveraging lithium nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) chemistry, and a more affordable variant using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry. These new batteries promise a 20% increase in driving range and a significant cost reduction, up to 40% for the popularized version.
Toyota’s innovative journey doesn’t stop there. The automaker is set to unveil a solid-state battery by 2027-2028 that promises a 20% boost in range and a 10-minute quick charge. A high-performance version of this battery, currently in R&D, could provide a remarkable 50% additional cruising range, potentially pushing the driving range beyond 900 miles – a significant leap from the current EV offerings.
Simultaneously, Toyota is implementing manufacturing upgrades, including Giga casting, a process aimed at streamlining production by reducing the number of components needed for assembly. This strategy could reduce production lead times, processes, and investment for mass-produced EVs by an impressive 50%.
Taking a leap into the future, Toyota is also exploring hypersonic aerodynamics in collaboration with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Space Systems Division. This cutting-edge technology, typically used in rocket propulsion, could significantly reduce aerodynamic drag on EVs, thereby improving vehicle efficiency and range.
Despite these advancements, the transition towards EVs is not without its challenges. The production of batteries for electric SUVs, which are typically two to three times larger than those for small cars, requires a vast amount of critical minerals. Yet, even this hurdle seems surmountable in the face of the benefits. For instance, electric SUVs displaced over 150,000 barrels of oil consumption per day in 2022, circumventing the associated tailpipe emissions from combustion engines.
In summary, Toyota’s transformative journey towards electrification signifies a pivotal turning point in the global auto industry, influencing the world’s oil markets in the process. While challenges persist, this shift towards electric mobility underscores the auto industry’s proactive role in shaping a sustainable energy future. Undeniably, the path ahead is electrifying!
