The sprawling suburbs of Melbourne and regional Victoria are now seeing an uptick in distressed property listings, as the potent combination of interest rate hikes and the rising cost of living prompts a reassessment of finances among property owners.
At the heart of this issue is the mortgage belt. Covering the outer suburbs, this area has become a critical marker in the recent shifts. In the City of Casey’s southern region, distressed listings spiked to 4.6% in June, a significant leap from 3.1% the previous year. Meanwhile, Cardinia and Wyndham weren’t far behind, with each registering a rise of over a percentage point to 2.2% and 2.3% respectively. Interestingly, Dandenong bucked the trend, recording a minor increase of 3.7% in distressed listings in June, a marginal uptick from the previous year.
Distressed listings, for the uninitiated, are characterised by tell-tale phrases such as “must sell” or “distressed”. Typically, these listings belong to property owners with low equity, who made their purchases during the period of low-interest rates.
Notably, this phenomenon isn’t confined to Melbourne’s peripheries. Some regional areas, such as the Shepparton and Geelong council areas, have also seen an increase in distressed listings. The former saw a 1.8 percentage points rise over a year to 2.7%, while the latter witnessed a growth of 1.6 percentage points, reaching 2.4%.
These subtle shifts have not gone unnoticed among real estate agents, who have adapted their strategies accordingly. More are now resorting to urgent sales tactics, using catchphrases like “must sell” in their headlines to create a sense of urgency among potential buyers.
While it might be easy to blame the recent market trends solely on external economic pressures, it’s important to note that the landscape was not entirely serene before the advent of these changes. Some property owners, particularly those who bought in the last 18 months, are finding themselves unable to meet their mortgage commitments and are now looking to sell, albeit at modest losses.
Stepping back, it’s worth putting these trends into perspective. Australia boasts approximately 10.8 million homes, and this number is growing by about 160,000 dwellings each year. About 3.6 million of these homes are owned by landlords and rented privately, the rest are either owner-occupied or public housing. This sizable rental stock is crucial to understanding the dynamics of distressed listings and the overall state of homeownership in the country.
The math is simple. Even if all new homes were snapped up by first-home buyers, with landlords refraining from any new purchases, homeownership would only rise from the current 66% to 72% over the next decade. Achieving a homeownership level akin to the peak 71% seen in the early 1970s would require landlords to make over 500,000 net sales, either by abstaining from buying new homes or offloading existing ones.
Notably, the property market is characterised by fluidity. Landlords regularly buy and sell properties, and homes often alternate between being rented and owner-occupied. Around half of the dwellings in the private rental sector exit the rental market within five years, being either sold to owner-occupiers, occupied by the owners, or redeveloped.
Given the constant churn and shifting dynamics of the Australian real estate market, the recent trend of rising distressed listings calls for a closer look rather than alarm. In this complex landscape, one fact remains clear: it’s a fascinating time to be watching the Australian real estate market, whether you’re a distressed homeowner, a first-time buyer, a landlord, or a market analyst. Australia’s housing market, it seems, is as vibrant and unpredictable as ever.
