In a recent presentation, renowned global macro investor and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal discussed the concept of the Exponential Age, an era marked by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), cryptocurrencies, and other emerging technologies. Pal predicts that the next two years will see larger scale quantitative easing (QE) due to ongoing banking crises and commercial real estate vacancies resulting from Covid-19, which in turn will necessitate increased productivity to cope with compounding debt.
Pal argues that the Exponential Age is providing this productivity boost, with trends like cryptocurrency, AI, and renewables leading the charge. The 2008 financial crisis eroded public trust in the financial system, prompting many to turn to cryptocurrencies as an alternative. AI, on the other hand, has blurred the lines between the online and physical worlds by creating, shaping, or manipulating information on a massive scale.
According to Pal, AI presents both risks and opportunities for society. While it may create a disinflationary shock and widespread job displacement, it could also usher in a renaissance through web 3.0 technologies, such as decentralized nations, digital communities, and tokenized assets. Pal suggests that “Universal Basic Equity,” a concept in which individuals own assets or currency of communities and are rewarded for being good community members, could provide purpose, meaning, and trust in a world increasingly dominated by AI.
Discussing the potential for digital sovereign states, Pal highlights the freedom they offer individuals compared to traditional physical jurisdictions. However, he also acknowledges the challenges society will face in the Exponential Age, from grappling with the truth and human roles to navigating the ever-evolving technological landscape. While short-term risks like displacement and chaos exist, Pal is optimistic that technology will enable people to find new purpose and meaning.
On the topic of AI safety, Pal believes that achieving alignment with humanity may be impossible, and regulating AI might not be feasible due to the misalignment of ideas worldwide. Instead, he supports open-sourcing AI to provide everyone with culturally relevant AI, despite the terrifying potential consequences.
In the realm of the metaverse, Pal envisions Apple creating a photo-realistic 3D personalized map of the world, leading to a metaverse-style experience. This development would enable humans to fit into a digitized world fragmented into digital sovereign states. However, Pal also acknowledges the data privacy challenges that Apple may face in this endeavor.
Lastly, Pal shares his positive outlook for the crypto market over the next six months, predicting significant growth due to increased capital inflows. With AI, crypto, and QE all part of the same macro trend, Pal sees a bright future filled with opportunities for those who embrace the changes that lie ahead. As society grapples with this new Exponential Age, it’s clear that the ways we work, live, and interact will continue to evolve at an unprecedented pace.
