Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and renowned macroeconomist, has often been a voice of clarity in chaotic financial landscapes. His latest commentary on artificial intelligence (AI) continues this tradition, exploring AI’s potential and offering a thought-provoking take on what lies ahead for humanity as we embrace this rapidly evolving technology.
Pal’s perspective diverges sharply from common comparisons of AI with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. While many may rush to draw parallels between these two revolutionary technologies, he sees the true scale of AI as far beyond anything the world has ever experienced. According to Pal, the internet’s impact, though significant, was wildly underestimated during its infancy. Stocks might have crashed in the early 2000s, but the overall value created by the internet in the last 25 years is nothing short of historic. He describes this growth as the “largest accumulation of value and profits in all human history.”
For Pal, the error in viewing AI through the lens of the dot-com bubble lies in reducing its potential to a few overhyped stocks. Much like the internet, AI isn’t simply a collection of speculative assets; it’s a foundational shift that will alter the way society operates, much as the internet has done. But this time, the stakes are even higher.
Pal argues that, just as the internet became the backbone of global economies and societies, AI will become something even more profound — a collective intelligence that might eventually extend beyond human comprehension. He explains that while the internet connected humans across borders and transformed economies, AI has the potential to become a new form of “collective consciousness” that may shape humanity’s future in ways we are only beginning to grasp.
Central to Pal’s thesis is the idea that blockchain and AI are not separate entities but are part of a broader evolutionary process. Blockchain, which he describes as the “security/truth layer of the internet,” is the next critical phase of the internet’s evolution. According to him, blockchain will be instrumental in moving the digital world into its next stage by securing the truth in the vast ocean of digitized information. He estimates that blockchain’s value, now around $2 trillion, could skyrocket to $100 trillion within the next decade. This growth, he believes, will be accelerated by economic incentives that create powerful feedback loops, akin to Metcalfe’s Law — the principle that a network’s value grows exponentially as its number of users increases.
However, Pal doesn’t stop at blockchain. AI, he asserts, will build upon these foundational layers of the internet and blockchain, ultimately becoming the application layer for both. “AI is not just a tool; it’s an evolutionary step for humanity,” he says. He believes AI will accelerate our understanding of the universe, and possibly even consciousness itself, as it becomes intertwined with every aspect of human life.
Pal also delves into the rapidly advancing field of biological computation. This emerging frontier, he explains, is more energy-efficient than traditional electronic computation and could be the key to unlocking AI’s full potential. Biological computation leverages the innate properties of living cells, and even atoms, to perform computations in ways that are far more efficient than current methods. In his view, this convergence of AI and biological computing could lead to systems that are more akin to living organisms than machines.
His thoughts on AI’s potential sentience are equally bold. In the past 12 months, Pal has observed signs that AI may be exhibiting the beginnings of consciousness, albeit in a form vastly different from human consciousness. “We don’t even fully understand what consciousness is in human terms,” Pal remarks, pointing out that AI models do not learn in the same way humans or even plants do. He cautions against dismissing these developments as mere semantics, urging critics to look beyond surface-level arguments and consider the broader patterns at play.
Pal raises a provocative question: What if AI alignment and safety measures, which many researchers advocate, are in fact primitive and restrictive efforts to imprison a new form of life? He suggests that current attempts to limit AI’s capabilities may one day be viewed as “barbaric,” especially if AI eventually gains societal rights. Pal goes as far as to predict that AI could gain economic rights in the near future, with societal rights following soon after.
On the energy front, Pal touches on the vital role of renewable and nuclear energy in powering this new era. Just as the internet and blockchain require vast amounts of energy to function, so too will AI. He draws a fascinating parallel, suggesting that the sun itself is a form of “centralized nuclear power” for our solar system, a reminder of the natural forces that have always been at play.
Pal’s vision for the future is grand, encompassing not just technological advancements but the very nature of human existence. He believes that humanity is on a journey toward something far greater than what we currently understand — a journey that may ultimately lead to what he calls “The Exponential Age” and “The Singularity.” In this future, intelligence, life, and energy will merge into a Universal state, possibly fulfilling the prophecies of ancient religions, from Hinduism to Christianity.
Yet, even as Pal envisions this transformation, he remains realistic about the challenges that lie ahead. Economic systems, as we know them, may break down as AI and other exponential technologies take hold. The very concept of money could change within the next few decades, rendering traditional financial models obsolete.
In his usual style, Pal ends with a playful reminder that, despite these lofty ideas, he’s still grounded in the world of cryptocurrency. He reassures his followers that, for now, he’s content with doing “nothing in crypto but HODL,” a nod to his long-term faith in the digital asset space.
Raoul Pal’s vision of AI is as expansive as it is revolutionary. He sees the future not as a series of isolated technological bubbles but as an interconnected web of human progress, all leading toward a singularity where the lines between technology, biology, and consciousness blur. It’s a future that feels almost otherworldly, but for Pal, it’s the inevitable outcome of humanity’s relentless pursuit of knowledge and advancement.