Raoul Pal—the former head of hedge fund sales at Goldman Sachs and the CEO of Real Vision—says the dollar is poised to continue to surge higher as companies begin to default on dollar-denominated debt due to COVID-19:
For the longest time, a common narrative in the Bitcoin market has been that if the U.S. dollar rallies, the price of BTC will fall, but all through the pandemic that has ravaged world economies, Bitcoin has surged higher—as has gold, now at an over-five-year high.
To Americans or those who are holding U.S. dollar assets, this may sound like a good thing: a rallying dollar means traveling and buying foreign goods can be done on the cheap.
Pal believes the dollar is poised to rally even further than it has, and that’s bullish for Bitcoin.
“The dollar will continue to rise as demand for dollars rises. And that in turn slows global growth, making the dollar shortage worse and the solvency crisis worse as cash flows fall globally, which makes dollar in even short supply.”
But Pal believes policymakers will flock to a “Non-US Dollar dominated currency system”. Bitcoin, he has claimed, is a candidate for such a system: “Bitcoin is an entire trusted, verified, secure, financial and accounting system of digital value. […] It is nothing short of the future of our entire medium of exchange system, and of money itself and the platform on which it operates,” Pal wrote in a recent newsletter.
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