Google’s latest warning on quantum computing has reignited debate around how prepared Bitcoin really is for future attacks.
The company now believes that breaking modern encryption could require far fewer quantum bits, or qubits, than previously thought. Earlier estimates suggested millions of qubits would be needed. New research points to fewer than 500,000 qubits being enough to threaten the type of cryptography used by Bitcoin.
Researchers have also suggested that a quantum attack on Bitcoin could take around nine minutes, giving an estimated 41 per cent chance of success before a typical 10-minute block confirmation is completed.
That matters because Bitcoin transactions rely on cryptographic signatures to stay secure. If a quantum computer became powerful enough, it could potentially calculate a private key from a public key before the transaction is fully confirmed.
Google has now marked 2029 as an important deadline for moving towards post-quantum cryptography, warning that current systems may become vulnerable sooner than expected. The company said recent progress in quantum hardware, error correction and cryptographic research has made the issue more urgent.
The concern is not limited to Bitcoin. Google said quantum computers could eventually threaten current encryption and digital signature systems across banking, government services and the wider internet. The company is already working to move its own infrastructure towards post-quantum cryptography before the end of the decade.
Within crypto, some networks are already starting to prepare. The Ethereum Foundation has launched a post-quantum resource hub, while developers in the Solana ecosystem have been testing quantum-resistant vaults and wallet structures.
Bitcoin’s path is less clear. Developers have discussed proposals such as BIP 360, which could help protect wallets from future quantum attacks, but any major change would require broad agreement across the Bitcoin community. Researchers believe that even if Bitcoin started moving immediately, a full migration to quantum-resistant security could still take several years.
Some experts still argue the threat remains long term rather than immediate. Quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin do not yet exist, and building stable machines with hundreds of thousands of qubits remains a huge technical challenge. At the same time, Google’s updated timeline suggests the industry no longer sees quantum risk as something far off in the future.
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