The Philippines is facing fresh inflation concerns after forecasts suggested consumer prices could average 5.1 per cent in 2026 as the country grapples with soaring oil prices and a national energy emergency.
The country relies heavily on imported fuel, with reports showing around 95 to 98 per cent of its oil supply comes from overseas, much of it from the Middle East. That has left the Philippines exposed to global disruptions linked to the conflict in the region and the ongoing pressure on shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared a national energy emergency last week, warning that the country faced an imminent threat to fuel supplies. The emergency powers allow the government to fast-track fuel procurement, manage supply chains and monitor the effect on inflation and the peso. Officials say the Philippines currently has around 45 days of fuel reserves and is working to secure more oil from alternative suppliers.
The government has also launched a 20 billion peso emergency fund to strengthen fuel security and cushion the impact of supply disruptions. Talks are underway with the United States to secure waivers that would allow oil imports from countries such as Venezuela and Iran, while Russian and Abu Dhabi crude shipments are also being considered.
Economists have warned that higher fuel costs could quickly feed into transport, food and electricity prices. The Philippines already imports most of the fuel used in transport, industry and power generation, leaving households vulnerable when oil prices rise sharply.
While some forecasts from organisations such as the IMF and OECD had expected inflation to remain below 3 per cent this year, those outlooks were made before the latest oil shock. The current crisis has raised the prospect of much higher inflation if energy prices remain elevated for a prolonged period.
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