PlanB’s October Tweet: A Crypto Crystal Ball or Just Numbers in the Ether?

PlanB, the Dutch institutional investor who moonlights as a Bitcoin oracle, has long captivated the cryptocurrency community with his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. In a recent tweet, PlanB reminds us to keep an eye on Bitcoin’s October closing price. Why? Because according to him, it signals the start of a 24-month period that has historically yielded returns superior to merely holding onto the digital asset.

The tweet puts the spotlight back on the Bitcoin halving event, a coded occurrence in Bitcoin’s programming that takes place roughly every four years. In a halving, the reward that miners get for validating transactions and creating new blocks is cut in half. For instance, in May 2020, the reward fell from 12.5 to 6.25 bitcoins. Such events have been pivotal; the halving in 2012 saw Bitcoin’s price at $12.35, only to climb to $650.53 by the next halving in 2016.

So, what does this mean for the average investor or even the Bitcoin aficionado? PlanB’s tweet suggests that the 24-month period surrounding a halving—beginning six months prior and ending 18 months post-event—is one to watch keenly. His S2F model hypothesises that this period outperforms basic buying and holding strategies. The reason? Scarcity. With each halving, fewer bitcoins are generated, thereby making the cryptocurrency more scarce and theoretically, more valuable.

PlanB’s October warning has set tongues wagging and fingers typing across crypto forums and trading platforms. Some see it as the stuff of genius, a mathematical prophecy that applies the hard logic of scarcity to a notoriously volatile market. Others are more sceptical, questioning the efficacy of S2F and whether past performance can indeed predict future gains.

Critics also point out that the crypto market has changed significantly since Bitcoin’s inception, with increased regulatory scrutiny, market maturity and broader economic factors possibly diluting the influence of scarcity on Bitcoin’s price. There’s also the argument that scarcity alone doesn’t define value; demand must also be part of the equation.

Yet, PlanB remains an enigma and a beacon. By issuing his October tweet, he has once again stirred the ever-churning pot of cryptocurrency predictions. And as we all wait for the closing bell to ring on Bitcoin’s October performance, his words will hover in the air, leaving us to ponder whether this is another example of PlanB’s predictive wizardry or a moment that will evaporate into the complex world of blockchain data and speculation. Only time will tell. And in the volatile world of Bitcoin, time can be more unpredictable than any model or tweet.


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Maria Irene
Maria Irene
Maria Irene is a multi-faceted journalist with a focus on various domains including Cryptocurrency, NFTs, Real Estate, Energy, and Macroeconomics. With over a year of experience, she has produced an array of video content, news stories, and in-depth analyses. Her journalistic endeavours also involve a detailed exploration of the Australia-India partnership, pinpointing avenues for mutual collaboration. In addition to her work in journalism, Maria crafts easily digestible financial content for a specialised platform, demystifying complex economic theories for the layperson. She holds a strong belief that journalism should go beyond mere reporting; it should instigate meaningful discussions and effect change by spotlighting vital global issues. Committed to enriching public discourse, Maria aims to keep her audience not just well-informed, but also actively engaged across various platforms, encouraging them to partake in crucial global conversations.


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